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The Dynamics of Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and the Stock Market Under COVID-19 Uncertainty - Evidence From India

Author

Listed:
  • K.P. Prabheesh
  • Sanjiv Kumar

    (Department of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Technology, India)

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the dynamic relation between oil price returns, exchange rates, stock returns, and uncertainty shocks. Utilizing daily data, we employ a structural vector autoregression econometric technique to explore the impact of uncertainty in the Indian context. The study finds that COVID-19–induced uncertainty dampened the oil and stock markets. Further, findings suggest that COVID-19–induced uncertainty distorted the dynamics between oil and stock prices in the initial periods, due to the cautionary approach followed by investors.

Suggested Citation

  • K.P. Prabheesh & Sanjiv Kumar, 2021. "The Dynamics of Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and the Stock Market Under COVID-19 Uncertainty - Evidence From India," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:41
    DOI: 2021/10/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2021. "Oil Price News and COVID-19 - Is There Any Connection," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
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    3. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "COVID-19 research outcomes: An agenda for future research," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 439-445.
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    6. Haroon, Omair & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "COVID-19: Media coverage and financial markets behavior—A sectoral inquiry," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. K.P. Prabheesh & Rakesh Padhan & Bhavesh Garg, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Oil Price – Stock Market Nexus - Evidence From Net Oil-Importing Countries," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    8. C. T. Vidya & K. P. Prabheesh, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2408-2421, August.
    9. Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cuñado & Kazeem Isah & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Behaviour of the BRICS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 2042-2051, May.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K. P. & Kumar, Sanjiv, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Ben Salem, Leila & Zayati, Montassar & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    4. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2023. "Differential Tail Dependence between Crude Oil and Forex Markets in Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries during Recent Crisis Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Bala-Keffi, Ladi. R & Oboh, Victor. U & Imam, Shamsuddeen. Z & Vanni, Eguolo. M & Bikefe, Grace. G & Okoronkwo, Chinecherem.D & Joshua, Adams. N & Yusuf, Danjuma.S, 2023. "Impact of Covid 19 on Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 1713-1726, August.
    7. Tian, Guangning & Peng, Yuchao & Meng, Yuhao, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil prices in the COVID-19 era: Can machine learn better?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Syed Aun R. Rizvi & Ali Sakti, 2022. "Did green debt instruments aid diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Aissa Djedaiet & Hicham Ayad, "undated". "The double whammy of COVID-19 and oil price collapse: Spillover effects on inflation and exchange rates," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 202206, Reviewsep.
    11. Tumala, Mohammed M. & Salisu, Afees A. & Gambo, Ali I., 2023. "Disentangled oil shocks and stock market volatility in Nigeria and South Africa: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 707-717.
    12. Avik Das & Devanjali Nandi Das, 2022. "Understanding Volatility Spillover Relationship Among G7 Nations And India During Covid-19," Papers 2208.09148, arXiv.org.
    13. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    svar; exchange rate; stock return; oil price; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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