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Crude Oil Prices and COVID-19 - Persistence of the Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Manuel Monge

    (Asia Pacific Applied Economics Association)

Abstract

The effect of the COVID-19 crisis on crude oil prices is investigated by using long memory techniques. The oil price series is highly persistent with an order of integration of 0.84, displaying mean reversion. When we examine data before the onset of COVID-19, the first order integration hypothesis cannot be rejected. The results are consistent with evidence of market efficiency prior to the crisis, with the oil market becoming inefficient when incorporating the data covering the crisis. The evidence that oil price series is mean reverting implies that the shock will be transitory albeit with very long-lasting effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2021. "Crude Oil Prices and COVID-19 - Persistence of the Shock," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:25
    DOI: 2021/06/16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Papers 2003.06184, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2022. "Tail risk connectedness in the refined petroleum market: A first look at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Jamiu Olamilekan Badmus & Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu & Oluwadamilola Samuel Alawode, 2022. "Does COVID-19 shock endanger the flows of FDI in OECD? Empirical evidence based on AMG panel estimator," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Tian, Guangning & Peng, Yuchao & Meng, Yuhao, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil prices in the COVID-19 era: Can machine learn better?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil prices; covid19; persistence; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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