IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ate/journl/ajbev2i2-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical Dynamics of Unemployment: Portugal versus the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Leonida Correia
  • Daniela Carvalho

Abstract

Since Portugal joined the European Monetary Union, its unemployment rate has increased continuously. In the euro area, some other countries have also been experiencing high levels of unemployment. In this work, we analyse and characterize the dynamics of Portuguese unemployment in the recent past in an attempt to understand which groups have been most affected and how austerity measures have impacted this problem. Also, we investigate the relationship between the cyclical behaviour of the unemployment rate and business cycles since the 1970s, emphasizing a comparison between Portugal and the first eleven countries, other than Portugal, that have adopted the euro. The results show countercyclical behaviour in most countries, with great differences in the degree of association between the cycles of the two variables, and also suggest that the introduction of the euro induced stronger correlation for the majority of the euro area countries. Finally, we present some policy considerations raised by our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonida Correia & Daniela Carvalho, 2016. "Cyclical Dynamics of Unemployment: Portugal versus the Euro Area," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 2(2), pages 149-166, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ate:journl:ajbev2i2-3
    DOI: =10.30958/ajbe.2-2-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.athensjournals.gr/business/2016-2-2-3-Correia.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/=10.30958/ajbe.2-2-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    2. Feldmann, Horst, 2009. "The unemployment effects of labor regulation around the world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-90, March.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 6-59.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    7. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    8. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    9. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Pedro Portugal, 1999. "Employment volatility, employment protection and unemployment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Olympia Bover & Pilar García-Perea & Pedro Portugal, 1998. "A Comparative Study of the Portuguese and Spanish Labour Markets," Working Papers 9807, Banco de España.
    12. Alejandro García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-03686-1, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory T. Papanikos, 2022. "Greece in the Eurozone: An Evaluation of the First Two Decades," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(2), pages 177-192, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
    2. Haug, Alfred A. & King, Ian, 2014. "In the long run, US unemployment follows inflation like a faithful dog," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 42-52.
    3. John FitzGerald, 2001. "Wage Determination in Economies in Transition: Ireland Spain and Portugal," Papers WP141, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    5. Sunder, Marco & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Boom, bust, and the human body: Further evidence on the relationship between height and business cycles," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 450-466, December.
    6. Miyamoto, Hiroaki & Takahashi, Yuya, 2011. "Productivity growth, on-the-job search, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 666-680.
    7. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
    8. Galin Petrov Stefanov, 2020. "Mundel Optimality of the Bulgarian Accession to the Euro Area," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 3, pages 297-315.
    9. Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, 2015. "Volatile earmarked revenues and state highway expenditures in the United States," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 237-256, March.
    10. Sturn, Simon & Epstein, Gerald, 2021. "How much should we trust five-year averaging to purge business cycle effects? A reassessment of the finance-growth and capital accumulation-unemployment nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 242-256.
    11. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    12. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    13. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    14. Paolo Naticchioni & Emiliano Rustichelli & Antonio Scialà, 2003. "Employment protection and regional worker flows in Italy: an assessment of the theoretical predictions," Working Papers - Dipartimento di Economia 1-DEISFOL, Dipartimento di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome, revised 2003.
    15. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    16. Jacobs, Jan & Tassenaar, Vincent, 2004. "Height, income, and nutrition in the Netherlands: the second half of the 19th century," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 181-195, June.
    17. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
    18. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2009. "Technological Progress, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," ISER Discussion Paper 0734, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    19. Lorenzo E Bernal-Verdugo & Davide Furceri & Dominique Guillaume, 2012. "Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment: New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 251-273, June.
    20. John Fitz Gerald, 2006. "Lessons from 20 Years of Cohesion," Chapters, in: Susanne Mundschenk & Michael H. Stierle & Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag (ed.), Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ate:journl:ajbev2i2-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Afrodete Papanikou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.athensjournals.gr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.