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Can OPEC Cartel Reverse Crude Oil Price Downfall?

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  • Ibrahim A. Onour

    (Department of Business Administration, School of Management Studies, University of Khartoum, Sudan)

Abstract

This paper employs time varying coefficient approach to assess sensitivity of crude oil price change to a number of factors among which change in OPEC crude production and change in US oil production. Our finding indicate crude oil price is inelastic to OPEC production change, with elasticity varying between 0.09 and 0.13, but elastic to US oil production change with elasticity between 0.99 and 1.05. This imply on average crude oil price is about 8 times more responsive to US supply expansion than to OPEC supply decisions. As a result, OPEC producers have a limited impact on oil price reversal but the withdrawal of the US high cost shale technology producers from crude oil production at low price levels can be more effective driver of oil price rises in the future. Such low level sensitivity of oil price to change in OPEC supply imply, other things remain unchanged, for oil price to rise from the current $45 per barrel to $70 per barrel, OPEC cartel needs to cut its current daily production of 27 million barrels by 8 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Onour, 2016. "Can OPEC Cartel Reverse Crude Oil Price Downfall?," International Journal of World Policy and Development Studies, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(12), pages 90-93, 12-2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:ijwpds:2016:p:90-93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    OPEC; Crude oil; Price downfall.;
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