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Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on population health in California

Author

Listed:
  • Kaplan, R.M.
  • Ake, C.F.
  • Emery, S.L.
  • Navarro, A.M.

Abstract

Objectives. This study simulated the effects of tobacco excise tax increases on population health. Methods. Five simulations were used to estimate health outcomes associated with tobacco tax policies: (1) the effects of price on smoking prevalence; (2) the effects of tobacco use on years of potential life lost; (3) the effect of tobacco use on quality of life (morbidity); (4) the integration of prevalence, mortality, and morbidity into a model of quality adjusted life years (QALYs); and (5) the development of confidence intervals around these estimates. Effects were estimated for 1 year after the tax's initiation and 75 years into the future. Results. In California, a $0.50 tax increase and price elasticity of -0.40 would result in about 8389 QALYs (95% confidence interval [CI]=4629, 12113) saved the first year. Greater benefits would accrue each year until a steady state was reached after 75 years, when 52136 QALYs (95% CI=38297, 66262) would accrue each year. Higher taxes would produce even greater health benefits. Conclusions. A tobacco excise tax may be among a few policy options that will enhance a population's health status while making revenues available to government.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplan, R.M. & Ake, C.F. & Emery, S.L. & Navarro, A.M., 2001. "Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on population health in California," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 91(2), pages 239-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2001:91:2:239-244_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhuo & Roy, Kakoli & Haddix, Anne C. & Thacker, Stephen B., 2010. "Factors associated with differences in mortality and self-reported health across states in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 203-210, March.
    2. Jennifer W. Kahende & Brett R. Loomis & Bishwa Adhikari & LaTisha Marshall, 2008. "A Review of Economic Evaluations of Tobacco Control Programs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Pearl Bader & David Boisclair & Roberta Ferrence, 2011. "Effects of Tobacco Taxation and Pricing on Smoking Behavior in High Risk Populations: A Knowledge Synthesis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    5. van Baal, Pieter H.M. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & Hoogenveen, Rudolf T. & Feenstra, Talitha L., 2007. "Increasing tobacco taxes: A cheap tool to increase public health," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 142-152, July.
    6. Michelle Inness & Julian Barling & Keith Rogers & Nick Turner, 2008. "De-marketing Tobacco Through Price Changes and Consumer Attempts Quit Smoking," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 405-416, February.
    7. Reiner Hanewinkel & Christian Radden & Tobias Rosenkranz, 2008. "Price increase causes fewer sales of factory‐made cigarettes and higher sales of cheaper loose tobacco in Germany," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 683-693, June.

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