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A simulation of the effects of youth initiation policies on overall cigarette use

Author

Listed:
  • Levy, D.T.
  • Cummings, K.M.
  • Hyland, A.

Abstract

Objectives. We developed a simulation model to predict the effects of policies aimed at reducing smoking initiation by youths younger than 18 years. Methods. The model projected the number of smokers, never smokers, and ex-smokers by age, sex, and racial/ethnic group and the effects of reductions in youth initiation. Results. The model predicted that even if tobacco policies eliminated youth initiation, the number of smokers would not be halved for more than 30 years. If initiation were halved and some of the initiation were delayed rather than eliminated, substantially smaller reductions would result. Conclusions. Policies that increase cessation rates are needed to reduce the number of current smokers and the more near-term health problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, D.T. & Cummings, K.M. & Hyland, A., 2000. "A simulation of the effects of youth initiation policies on overall cigarette use," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(8), pages 1311-1314.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2000:90:8:1311-1314_8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    2. Ahmad, Sajjad, 2005. "Closing the youth access gap: The projected health benefits and cost savings of a national policy to raise the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 74-84, December.
    3. Shantanu Bagchi & James Feigenbaum, 2014. "Is Smoking a Fiscal Good?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(1), pages 170-190, January.
    4. Daniel Eisenberg & Brian Rowe, 2008. "The Effects of Smoking in Young Adulthood on Smoking and Health Later in Life: Evidence Based on the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery," Working Papers 08-35, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Levy, David T. & Bales, Sarah & Lam, Nguyen T. & Nikolayev, Leonid, 2006. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: Results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1819-1830, April.
    6. Levy, David T. & Hyland, Andrew & Higbee, Cheryl & Remer, Lillian & Compton, Christine, 2007. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-185, July.

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