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Individual causal models and population system models in epidemiology

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  • Koopman, J.S.
  • Lynch, J.W.

Abstract

A group of individuals behaves as a population system when patterns of connections among individuals influence population health outcomes. Epidemiology usually treats populations as collections of independent individuals rather than as systems of interacting individuals. An appropriate theoretical structure, which includes the determinants of connections among individuals, is needed to develop a 'population system epidemiology'. Infection transmission models and sufficient-component cause models provide contrasting templates for the needed theoretical structure. Sufficient- component cause models focus on joint effects of multiple exposures in individuals. They handle time and interactions between individuals in the definition of variables and assume that populations are the sum of their individuals. Transmission models, in contrast, model interactions among individuals over time. Their nonlinear structure means that population risks are not simply the sum of individual risks. The theoretical base for 'population system epidemiology' should integrate both approaches. It should model joint effects of multiple exposures in individuals as time related processes while incorporating the determinants and effects of interactions among individuals. Recent advances in G-estimation and discrete individual transmission model formulation provide opportunities for such integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Koopman, J.S. & Lynch, J.W., 1999. "Individual causal models and population system models in epidemiology," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(8), pages 1170-1174.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1999:89:8:1170-1174_2
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    Cited by:

    1. James H. Spencer & Katherine Irwin & Karen N. Umemoto & Orlando Garcia-Santiago & Stephanie T. Nishimura & Earl S. Hishinuma & Soojean Choi-Misailidis, 2009. "Exploring the Hypothesis of Ethnic Practice as Social Capital: Violence Among Asian/Pacific Islander Youth in Hawaii," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 55(6), pages 506-524, November.
    2. Mao, Liang & Yang, Yan, 2012. "Coupling infectious diseases, human preventive behavior, and networks – A conceptual framework for epidemic modeling," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 167-175.
    3. Steve E Bellan & Juliet R C Pulliam & James C Scott & Jonathan Dushoff & the MMED Organizing Committee, 2012. "How to Make Epidemiological Training Infectious," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8, April.
    4. Shunqiang Ye & Lu Wang & Kang Hao Cheong & Nenggang Xie, 2017. "Pedestrian Group-Crossing Behavior Modeling and Simulation Based on Multidimensional Dirty Faces Game," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    5. Jolanta Aleksejūnienė & Dorthe Holst & Vilma Brukienė, 2009. "Dental Caries Risk Studies Revisited: Causal Approaches Needed for Future Inquiries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Glass, Thomas A. & McAtee, Matthew J., 2006. "Behavioral science at the crossroads in public health: Extending horizons, envisioning the future," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(7), pages 1650-1671, April.
    7. Ahern, Jennifer & Galea, Sandro & Hubbard, Alan & Karpati, Adam, 2008. "Population vulnerabilities and capacities related to health: A test of a model," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 691-703, February.
    8. Galea, Sandro & Ahern, Jennifer & Karpati, Adam, 2005. "A model of underlying socioeconomic vulnerability in human populations: evidence from variability in population health and implications for public health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(11), pages 2417-2430, June.
    9. Wang, W.L. & Tsui, K.L. & Lo, S.M. & Liu, S.B., 2018. "Computational modeling and statistical analyses on individual contact rate and exposure to disease in complex and confined transportation hubs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1461-1470.
    10. Richardson, Eugene T. & Malik, Momin M. & Darity, William A. & Mullen, A. Kirsten & Morse, Michelle E. & Malik, Maya & Maybank, Aletha & Bassett, Mary T. & Farmer, Paul E. & Worden, Lee & Jones, James, 2021. "Reparations for Black American descendants of persons enslaved in the U.S. and their potential impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

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