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Passage to Methuselah: some demographic consequences of continued progress against mortality

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  • Vaupel, J.W.
  • Gowan, A.E.

Abstract

How will progress against mortality affect the size and age composition of the United States population over the next century? To gain some insight into this question, three scenarios are examined: no future progress against mortality; steady reductions in mortality at all ages at a rate of 2 per cent per year; and a radical breakthrough in the year 2000 that cuts mortality in half. All three scenarios substantially shift the composition of the US population toward older ages, steady progress resulting in the most radical change. If mortality is reduced 2 per cent per year, by 2080 almost two-fifths of the population would be above age 65 and the number of centenarians would approach 19 million. The social, economic, and public health consequences of this new demography, although speculative and uncertain, are so important that detailed analysis and planning are warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaupel, J.W. & Gowan, A.E., 1986. "Passage to Methuselah: some demographic consequences of continued progress against mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 76(4), pages 430-433.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:1986:76:4:430-433_9
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    Cited by:

    1. James Vaupel, 1988. "Inherited frailty and longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(2), pages 277-287, May.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink, 2009. "The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," PGDA Working Papers 4709, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    3. Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov & Alexander Hanika, 2003. "'Vienna: a city beyond aging' - revisited and revised," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 1(1), pages 181-195.
    4. Dennis Ahlburg & James Vaupel, 1990. "Alternative Projections of the U.S. population," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 639-652, November.
    5. Angus Deaton, 2005. "The Great Escape: A Review Essay on Fogel's The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100," Working Papers 166, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    6. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 813-833, December.
    7. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
    8. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.

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