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Saldos Comerciais e Taxa de Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise do Caso Brasileiro

Author

Listed:
  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie)

  • Marislei Nishijima

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Wagner Oliveira Monteiro

    (Uninove)

Abstract

Este artigo busca verificar em que medida o saldo comercial responde a alterações de preços relativos no período recente. O período estudado abrange os anos de 1980 a 2004. Busca-se também avaliar em que medida a relação encontrada entre saldo comercial e taxa de câmbio real manteve-se inalterada ao longo do período. A metodologia econométrica a ser utilizada consiste na análise de cointegração multivariada na forma proposta por Johansen nos seus trabalhos clássicos. A evidência obtida neste artigo com uma amostra razoavelmente longa indica que tal relação continua a existir e é estável para quase um quarto de século. A razão pela qual os estudos da segunda metade dos anos noventa colocaram em dúvida tal relação deve-se a ocorrência de um grande desequilíbrio que persistiu ao longo de toda década de noventa. O efeito sobre o saldo da abertura econômica demorou cerca de uma década para ser absorvido e claramente a desvalorização cambial de 1999 acelerou a correção deste desequilíbrio.

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Marislei Nishijima & Wagner Oliveira Monteiro, 2009. "Saldos Comerciais e Taxa de Câmbio Real: Uma Nova Análise do Caso Brasileiro," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 10(2), pages 333-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:10:y:2009:i:2:333-356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saldo Comercial; Cointegração e Taxa de Câmbio Real;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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