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The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test

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  • Çiğdem Yılmaz Özsoy

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Bitcoin/TL prices as a Commodity by using the ARDL Bounds Test. In the article, monthly data between 2017:09 – 2019:12 is used. The Central Bank Indicators are explained by M2 money supply, one-month interest rates of bank deposits, one-week repo interest rate, 10-year government bond. In the paper, Bitcoin's prices are considered as a Commodity in TL. The stationary behavior of variables is investigated by using the ADF test and it is found that all the variables are stationary in first differences for the trend and constant model. But the price of Bitcoin in TL is stationary in level for the constant model. Thus, to discover the long-run relationship between variables, the ARDL test is applied. As a result of the ARDL test, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between all the Central Bank indicators and Bitcoin/TL prices. According to obtained results, while the M2 money supply and Turkey’s 10-year government bonds (%) move together with Bitcoin prices; the one-week repo interest rate as a political rate, and one-month interest rates of the deposit move in opposite directions with Bitcoin prices in a long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Çiğdem Yılmaz Özsoy, 2021. "The Impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Commodity Prices: An Application of ARDL Bounds Test," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 9(1), pages 13-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:anm:alpnmr:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:13-24
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.720873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott A. Wolla, 2018. "Bitcoin: Money or Financial Investment?," Page One Economics Newsletter, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 1-6, March.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    3. Ahmed Alhodiry & Husam Rjoub & Ahmed Samour, 2021. "Impact of oil prices, the U.S interest rates on Turkey’s real estate market. New evidence from combined co-integration and bootstrap ARDL tests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ramazan Sari & Bradley T. Ewing, 2009. "Relationships Among Strategic Commodities And With Financial Variables: A New Look," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(2), pages 251-264, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Central Bank; Cointegration; Commodity; Unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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