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The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Price, Economic Growth and Export In OPEC Countries

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  • Fatih Çemrek
  • Hüseyin Naci Bayraç

Abstract

In countries where the rate of industrialization and growth is high, dependence on oil is constantly increasing. Factors such as the increase in oil reserves of OPEC countries, differences in oil extraction costs, oil supply and demand imbalances cause oil prices to fluctuate. Increases in oil prices in OPEC countries have an increasing effect on energy export revenues and government budget revenues. In an economy dependent on oil export revenues, the existence of new reserves or the increase in oil production changes the structure of the production and export sectors in favor of oil. OPEC countries, which generate income based on oil exports, lose their competitive power in foreign markets when they cannot invest in R&D, technology and productivity. This situation causes countries to have an economic structure dependent on imports, to increase their current account deficit and to decrease their growth rates. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between average annual crude oil price (nominal value in US dollars), gross domestic product (2010 prices and $) and exports (2010 prices and $) for OPEC member countries through panel data analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Çemrek & Hüseyin Naci Bayraç, 2021. "The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Oil Price, Economic Growth and Export In OPEC Countries," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 9(1), pages 111-124, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:anm:alpnmr:v:9:y:2021:i:1:p:111-124
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.909410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amaira Bouzid, 2012. "The Relationship of Oil Prices and Economic Growthin Tunisia: A Vector Error Correction Model Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 3-22, March.
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    3. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OPEC; Oil Price; Panel Data Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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