IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ana/elitjr/v1y2019i2p117-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatilities on Stock Prices: Further Empirical Evidence from Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Grace Ofori-Abebrese

    (Department of Economics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology)

  • Samuel Tawiah Baidoo

    (Department of Economics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology)

  • Peter Yaw Osei

    (Republic Bank Investments, Accra-Ghana)

Abstract

Studies have proven that volatilities in the rates of exchange and interest influence the performance of institutions and the values of their shares. This study investigates empirically the effect of exchange rate and interest rate volatilities on stock prices of financial institutions listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange using monthly data spanning the period January 2000 to October 2016. The generalized auto regressive conditionality heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is employed for the analysis. The results show that exchange rate volatility exerts positive effect on stock prices whereas interest rate volatility impacts on stock prices negatively. These results imply that the trade-off between risk and return can be predicted so industry players and stakeholders can manage risk to ensure a vibrant financial market. It is also suggested that there is the need for stakeholders and policy makers to ensure that these variables are stable or the volatilities are minimized in the economy. This will go a long way to enhance the performance of the stock market activities in the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace Ofori-Abebrese & Samuel Tawiah Baidoo & Peter Yaw Osei, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatilities on Stock Prices: Further Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Economics Literature, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 117-132, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ana:elitjr:v:1:y:2019:i:2:p:117-132
    DOI: 10.22440/elit.1.2.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://elit.weri.eu/index.php/elit/article/view/15/11
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22440/elit.1.2.3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics in Kenya: Commercial Banks' Rates and the 91‐Day Treasury Bill Rate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 214-232, March.
    4. Augustine Addo & Fidelis Sunzuoye, 2013. "The Impact of Treasury Bill Rate and Interest Rate On The Stock Market Returns: Case Of Ghana Stock Exchange," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(2), pages 3781:8-3781, July.
    5. Javed Iqbal & Aziz Haider, 2005. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 123-139, Jan-Jun.
    6. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Zhao, Hua, 2010. "Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 103-112, June.
    8. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    9. Hyde, Stuart J, 2007. "The response of industry stock returns to market, exchange rate and interest rate risks," MPRA Paper 9679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Aloui Mouna & Jarboui Anis, 2016. "Market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk effects on financial stock returns during the financial crisis: AGARCH-M approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1125332-112, December.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    14. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    15. Solnik, Bruno, 1987. "Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-149, March.
    16. Rashid, Abdul, 2007. "Exchange rates or stock prices, what causes what: A firm level empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 27209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Andre Yone Haughton & Emma M. Iglesias, 2017. "Exchange Rate Movements, Stock Prices and Volatility in the Caribbean and Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 437-447.
    18. Charles Kwofie & Richard Kwame Ansah, 2018. "A Study of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Returns in Ghana," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignments in ASEAN-5 countries," MPRA Paper 59169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lee, Chin & M., Azali & Yusop, Zulkornain & Yusoff, Mohammed, 2008. "Is Malaysia exchange rate misalignment before the 1997 crisis?," MPRA Paper 40430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    6. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    7. Kam-hon CHU & Bob Y. C. Chan & Chor-yiu Sin, 2000. "Contagion Effects, Informational Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics during the Asian Currency Crisis," Working Papers 022000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Uma Murthy & Paul Anthony & Rubana Vighnesvaran, 2016. "Factors Affecting Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) Stock Market Return in Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(1), pages 122-122, December.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:624-635 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    11. Caroline Duburcq, 2010. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Regime on Interest Rates in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(135), pages 91-124.
    12. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Works, Richard & Haan, Perry, 2017. "An Empirical Study of Japanese and South Korean Exchange Rates Using the Sticky-Price Monetary Theory," MPRA Paper 77235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    15. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    16. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
    17. Kholdy, Shady & Sohrabian, Ahmad, 1995. "Testing for the relationship between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134.
    18. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    19. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ott, Mack, 1996. "Post Bretton Woods deviations from purchasing power parity in G7 exchange rates--an empirical exploration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 899-924, December.
    21. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; stock prices; volatility; financial markets; GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ana:elitjr:v:1:y:2019:i:2:p:117-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Unal Tongur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ewanatr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.