Modeling of Promising Interaction Between a Timber Industry Enterprise and a Commodity Exchange in Russia

The relevance of the study lies in the absence of works in the literature devoted to the formation of supply chains of materials in volumes sufficient for production using the apparatus of commodity exchanges. The aim of the work is to conduct an empirical study to assess the prospects for the interaction of a timber industry enterprise with a commodity exchange. For the study, a mathematical model was chosen to assess the effectiveness of the purchase of raw materials from the forestry department of the commodity exchange by an enterprise in the timber industry. The hypothesis is that the interaction of the timber industry complex can be beneficial for the enterprise. To ensure the feasibility of purchasing raw materials from the exchange, simulation modeling was chosen. For each individual simulation iteration, a linear integer programming mathematical model was used. To generate some input data, like price, demand, etc., the Monte Carlo method was used. The complexity of the problem lies in the following aspects: polynomial growth of the number of numbers; a large number of restrictions on the increase in the degree of complexity of finding the first feasible solution to the model; search for a solution within the framework of integer optimization; a fairly large number of independent simulation iterations. The practical significance of the study is to prove the expediency of purchasing raw materials by the enterprise from the commodity and raw materials exchange of Russia. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the development of a model for assessing the feasibility of purchasing materials using the exchange apparatus. The scientific novelty is based on the constructed mathematical model of the formation of supply chains and the volume of production, taking into account the demand in the market and the volume of materials. The model was tested on data from one forestry enterprise in the Primorsky Territory. Optimization is carried out in terms of the volume of products produced, the volume of purchased materials from each region and the stock of raw materials in the production warehouse. Based on the testing of data models of the exchange and the forestry enterprise, an analysis was performed of the possibilities for cooperation between the company and the commodity exchange. The work reflects the behavior in the long term of accumulated profit, the nature of changes in stock in the warehouse and the volume of products produced.