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Forecasting inflation and its determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Anca Tanasie
  • Cosmin Fratostiteanu

    (University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Romania)

Abstract

VAR modeling in inflation forecasting has been widely used, and rather successful, even if there have been several critiques of its exactness or accuracy. This paper is structured into two sections. The first one accomplishes a general presentation of VAR modeling in forecasting inflation, and the second is focused on the results of this econometric approach for inflation in Romania. Even if we considered methodologies containing inflation measured using CPI, CORE1 and CORE2, testing will only be performed for the CPI Inflation. Data used in mainly provided by statistics issued by the Romanian National Bank, and computing is accomplished using Mathematica 5.0.

Suggested Citation

  • Anca Tanasie & Cosmin Fratostiteanu, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and its determinants," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(10), pages 110-116, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:rteyej:v:1:y:2008:i:10:p:110-116
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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/RTE/010-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Peter F. Christoffersen & Mr. Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 1999/041, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; VAR models; forecast; Romania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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