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Case – study Concerning the Effects of the Macroeconomic Variables on the Loan Portfolios Quality of the Romanian Banking Sector Using the VAR Model and Least Squares Method

Author

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  • Alina Georgiana Manta

    (University of Craiova Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Roxana Maria Badîrcea

    (University of Craiova Faculty of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effects of Romania's macroeconomic variables of the loan portfolio quality of the banking sector. Specifically, the study seeks to emphasize the interdependent macroeconomic elements that influence the evolution of credit portfolio quality for commercial banks. To achieve these correlations we use both the VAR model and the method of least squares. Monetary and structural influences are highlighted by using cumulative impulse – answer functions. The results show that monetary factors have contributed greatly to the intensity of financial crises. Beyond these results, it can be concluded that the interest rate and real exchange rate play an important role in sizing the loan portfolio quality at the banking system level.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Georgiana Manta & Roxana Maria Badîrcea, 2013. "Case – study Concerning the Effects of the Macroeconomic Variables on the Loan Portfolios Quality of the Romanian Banking Sector Using the VAR Model and Least Squares Method," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15), pages 96-103, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:fpvfcf:v:1:y:2013:i:15:p:96-103
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    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/FPV/015-012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    2. Mohd Zaini Abd Karim & Sok-Gee Chan & Sallahudin Hassan, 2010. "Bank Efficiency and Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(2), pages 118-132.
    3. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria FIRESCU & Jenica Popescu & Bogdan Popa, 2017. "Return on securities of the listed banks, using BET and BET-C indices of the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(19), pages 41-52, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rate; economic growth; exchange rate; credit risk rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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