IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aid/journl/v4y2021i1p7-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Twitter Sentiment on Bitcoin Return and High-Frequency Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang Gao

    (Shanghai Business School, Shanghai, China)

  • Weige Huang

    (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China)

  • Hua Wang

    (Shenzhen Technology University, Shenzhen, China)

Abstract

This paper studies how sentiment affect Bitcoin pricing by examining, at an hourly frequency, the linkage between sentiment of finance-related Twitter messages and return as well as the volatility of Bitcoin as a financial asset. On the one hand, there was calculated the return from minute-level Bitcoin exchange quotes and use of both rolling variance and high-minus-low price to proxy for Bitcoin volatility per each trading hour. On the other hand, the mood signals from tweets were extracted based on a list of positive, negative, and uncertain words according to the Loughran-McDonald finance-specific dictionary. These signals were translated by categorizing each tweet into one of three sentiments, namely, bullish, bearish, and null. Then the total number of tweets were adopted in each category over one hour and their differences as potential Bitcoin price predictors. The empirical results indicate that after controlling a list of lagged returns and volatilities, stronger bullish sentiment significantly foreshadows higher Bitcoin return and volatility over the time range of 24 hours. While bearish and neutral financial Twitter sentiments have no such consistent performance, the difference between bullish and bearish ratings can improve prediction consistency. Overall, this research results add to the growing Bitcoin literature by demonstrating that the Bitcoin pricing mechanism can be partially revealed by the momentum on sentiment in social media networks, justifying a sentimental appetite for cryptocurrency investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Gao & Weige Huang & Hua Wang, 2021. "Financial Twitter Sentiment on Bitcoin Return and High-Frequency Volatility," Virtual Economics, The London Academy of Science and Business, vol. 4(1), pages 7-18, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aid:journl:v:4:y:2021:i:1:p:7-18
    DOI: 10.34021/ve.2021.04.01(1)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://virtual-economics.eu/index.php/VE/article/download/101/73
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34021/ve.2021.04.01(1)?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Mingxi & Sima, Zeqian, 2020. "A novel cryptocurrency price trend forecasting model based on LightGBM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Osman, Myriam Ben & Urom, Christian & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2024. "Economic sentiment and the cryptocurrency market in the post-COVID-19 era," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yamashiro, Hirochika & Nonaka, Hirofumi, 2021. "Estimation of processing time using machine learning and real factory data for optimization of parallel machine scheduling problem," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    2. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping & Chen, Jianming, 2021. "Multiscale information transmission between commodity markets: An EMD-Based transfer entropy network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Yilun Zhang & Yuping Song & Ying Peng & Hanchao Wang, 2024. "Volatility forecasting incorporating intraday positive and negative jumps based on deep learning model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2749-2765, November.
    4. Hakan Pabuccu & Adrian Barbu, 2023. "Feature Selection with Annealing for Forecasting Financial Time Series," Papers 2303.02223, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Wu Junfeng & Li Yaoming & Tan Wenqing & Chen Yun, 2024. "Portfolio management based on a reinforcement learning framework," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2792-2808, November.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Forecasting returns of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from regime-switching factor models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Hwang, Yoontae & Park, Junpyo & Lee, Yongjae & Lim, Dong-Young, 2023. "Stop-loss adjusted labels for machine learning-based trading of risky assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    8. Julien Chevallier & Dominique Guégan & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-44, May.
    9. Yukai Chen & Khaled Sidahmed Sidahmed Alamin & Daniele Jahier Pagliari & Sara Vinco & Enrico Macii & Massimo Poncino, 2020. "Electric Vehicles Plug-In Duration Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Battery Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Bouteska, Ahmed & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Hajek, Petr & Yuan, Kunpeng, 2024. "Cryptocurrency price forecasting – A comparative analysis of ensemble learning and deep learning methods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Kong, Xiao-Lin & Baltas, Konstantinos & Zureigat, Qasim, 2022. "Past, present, and future of the application of machine learning in cryptocurrency research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Chenlu Dang & Fan Wang & Zimo Yang & Hongxia Zhang & Yufeng Qian, 2022. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Evaluating and forecasting the risks of small to medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain finance market using blockchain technology and deep learning model," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 662-675, December.
    13. ANGHEL, Dan-Gabriel, 2021. "A reality check on trading rule performance in the cryptocurrency market: Machine learning vs. technical analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    14. Tapia, Sebastian & Kristjanpoller, Werner, 2022. "Framework based on multiplicative error and residual analysis to forecast bitcoin intraday-volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    15. James Ming Chen & Mira Zovko & Nika Šimurina & Vatroslav Zovko, 2021. "Fear in a Handful of Dust: The Epidemiological, Environmental, and Economic Drivers of Death by PM 2.5 Pollution," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-59, August.
    16. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    17. Qiyan Wang & Yuanyuan Jiang, 2023. "Leisure Time Prediction and Influencing Factors Analysis Based on LightGBM and SHAP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.
    18. Zhang, Yan & Teoh, Bak Koon & Zhang, Limao, 2024. "Multi-objective optimization for energy-efficient building design considering urban heat island effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    19. Mingzhe Wei & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis, 2023. "Forecasting and trading Bitcoin with machine learning techniques and a hybrid volatility/sentiment leverage," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 852-871, July.
    20. Alireza Rezazadeh & Yasamin Jafarian & Ali Kord, 2022. "Explainable Ensemble Machine Learning for Breast Cancer Diagnosis Based on Ultrasound Image Texture Features," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aid:journl:v:4:y:2021:i:1:p:7-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aleksy Kwilinski (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/akwilin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.