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Modelling Environment Changes for Pricing Weather Derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Stanimir Kabaivanov
  • Veneta Markovska

Abstract

This paper focuses on modelling environment changes in a way that allows to price weather derivatives in a flexible and efficient way. Applications and importance of climate and weather contracts extends beyond financial markets and hedging as they can be used as complementary tools for risk assessment. In addition, option-based approach toward resource management can offer very special insights on rare-events and allow to reuse derivative pricing methods to improve natural resources management. To demonstrate this general concept, we use Monte Carlo and stochastic modelling of temperatures to evaluate weather options. Research results are accompanied by R and Python code. JEL Codes - G13; G17; G18

Suggested Citation

  • Stanimir Kabaivanov & Veneta Markovska, 2017. "Modelling Environment Changes for Pricing Weather Derivatives," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 64(4), pages 423-430, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:64:y:2017:i:4:p:423-430:n:85
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    File URL: http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1068
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont, 2006. "Model Uncertainty And Its Impact On The Pricing Of Derivative Instruments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 519-547, July.
    2. Ning Cai & Yingda Song & Steven Kou, 2015. "A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Under Markov Processes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 540-554, June.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    4. Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2004. "Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1065-1089, November.
    5. Amiyatosh Purnanandam & Daniel Weagley, 2016. "Can Markets Discipline Government Agencies? Evidence from the Weather Derivatives Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 303-334, February.
    6. Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather derivatives; temperature modelling; Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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