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The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on The Stock Market in The Time of Covid-19: The Case of Turkey

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  • Ali İlhan
  • Coşkun Akdeniz

Abstract

Along with the ongoing efforts to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies through various simulations and forecasts, the severe trauma experienced in financial markets has already manifested itself in market data. Besides the uncertainty created by the pandemic, fluctuations in macroeconomic variables have increased volatility in the developed and emerging stock markets. In this context, this study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on the BIST 100 index before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, the effects of interest rate, exchange rate, CDS premium, VIX, and oil prices on BIST 100 are estimated using the Flexible Least Squares method, which allows for the time-varying coefficient estimation, for the period of 13 September 2019 to 11 September 2020. Empirical findings indicate that interest rate, VIX, and oil prices had significant effects on BIST 100 for certain periods. On the other hand, the exchange rate and CDS premium significantly and negatively affect BIST 100 in the whole sample. Moreover, it is determined that the exchange rate is the macroeconomic variable with the highest impact on BIST 100 based on the quantitative magnitude of the coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali İlhan & Coşkun Akdeniz, 2020. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on The Stock Market in The Time of Covid-19: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(3), pages 893-912.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:5:y:2020:i:3:p:893-912
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.810630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Adrien Desroziers, 2020. "The stock market is not the economy? Insights from the Covid-19 crisis," Post-Print hal-03252106, HAL.
    2. Qing He & Junyi Liu & Sizhu Wang & Jishuang Yu, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on stock markets," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-288, July.
    3. Massomeh Hajilee & Omar Al Nasser, 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 163-180.
    4. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kadir Tuna, 2022. "The Effects of Volatilities in Oil Price, Gold Price and VIX Index on Turkish BIST 100 Stock Index in Pandemic Period," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-1), pages 39-54, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BIST-100; COVID-19; Flexible Least Squares; Macroeconomic Variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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