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The impact of traditional and non-traditional agricultural exports on the economic growth of Peru: a short- and long-run analysis

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  • Urriola Canchari, Nadia Nora
  • Aquino Rodriguez, Carlos Alberto
  • Baral, Pradeep

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and quantify the short- and long-run impact of agricultural exports–both traditional and nontraditional products–on economic growth of Peru using an annual time series data from 2000 to 2016 obtained from the Central Bank of Peru and the World Bank. Traditional agricultural exports value, non-traditional agricultural exports value, labor force and fixed capital formation value for each year of the stipulated period were used as determinant factors of the economic growth. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Co-integration test and Granger Causality test were employed for data analysis. The findings revealed that in the short run, traditional agricultural exports have had a positive but non-significant effect on economic growth while non-traditional agricultural exports have had a positive and significant effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Meanwhile, both fixed capital formation and the labor force have had a significant effect on the GDP, albeit in different directions. The ADF test showed that, with the exception of traditional agricultural exports and fixed capital formation, all determinants became stationary at a level I (0). Moreover, the Co-integration result showed that there is a long-run relationship between the studied variables and a unidirectional causality in the relation between the determinant variables and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Urriola Canchari, Nadia Nora & Aquino Rodriguez, Carlos Alberto & Baral, Pradeep, 2018. "The impact of traditional and non-traditional agricultural exports on the economic growth of Peru: a short- and long-run analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 120(3), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:stagec:280976
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.280976
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
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    1. Mamba, Essotanam & Ali, Essossinam, 2022. "Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-267.
    2. Nesrine Gafsi & Sayef Bakari, 2024. "Impacts of Agricultural CO2 Emissions, Agricultural Exports and Financial Development on Economic Growth: Insights from East Asia and Pacific Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 136-153, November.

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