Production and prices in the agricultural business cycle in Poland

The agricultural business cycle is an important and at the same time complex issue, because it is influenced, in addition to economic factors, by natural changes and biological conditions. The study is empirical in nature. Its main objective is to identify recurring features of the agricultural business cycle, which concern changes in production and prices. Based on the final agricultural production, it was found that in the years 2001–2015 the length of the full cycle was from 4 to 6 years. The growth phase lasted from 2 to 4 years, and the decline phase 1–2 years. The amplitude of all cycles based on annual data was close to zero. In each growth phase, there was a cumulative increase in global and final agricultural production. Increases in the better economic phase were much greater than decreases in the worse period. The only recurring feature of changes in gross value added was its relative total increase in the growth phase in relation to the total changes in the decline phase. Average annual and cumulative data indicate that price dynamics in the phase of better economic conditions were always higher than dynamics in the period of worse economic conditions. In each growth phase, prices increased in cumulative terms, while in the decline phase they usually decreased slightly. Global agricultural production prices were more dynamic and volatile in annual terms than their real values. On the other hand, the cumulative dynamics of prices and production values ​​in the individual phases of the agricultural cycle behaved very similarly. Average price scissors in all growth phases and almost in all decline phases were unfavourable for farmers.