IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/pojard/355915.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Efficient planning of sorghum production in South Africa – application of the Box-Jenkin’s method

Author

Listed:
  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy
  • Belete, Abenet

Abstract

Estimation and forecasting of crop production are crucial in supporting policy decisions regarding food security and development issues. The present study examines the current status of sorghum production in South Africa. Univariate time series modelling using ARIMA model was developed for forecasting sorghum production. Box and Jenkins linear time series model, which involves autoregression, moving average, and integration, also known as ARIMA (p, d, q) model was applied. The annual production series of sorghum from 1960 to 2014 exhibited a decreasing trend while prediction of sorghum production between 2017 and 2020 showed an increasing trend. The study has shown that the best-fitted model for sorghum production series is ARMA (1, 0, 4). The model revealed a good performance in terms of explaining variability and forecasting power. This study has also shown that sorghum could contribute to the household and national food security because of its drought-tolerant properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoko, Rangarirai Roy & Belete, Abenet, 2017. "Efficient planning of sorghum production in South Africa – application of the Box-Jenkin’s method," Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland, vol. 46(4), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pojard:355915
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.355915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/355915/files/EFFICIENT%20PLANNING%20OF%20SORGHUM%20PRODUCTION%20IN%20SOUTH%20AFRICA%20%E2%80%93%20APPLICATION%20OF%20THE%20BOX-JENKIN%E2%80%99S%20METHOD.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.355915?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pojard:355915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.jard.edu.pl/en/main .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.