IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/naaenj/280316.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Exports in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Akinbode, S. O.
  • Ojo, O. T.

Abstract

There have been fluctuations in the exchange rate of Naira to other major world currencies especially the US Dollar over time. The implication of this on agricultural exports is unknown. This study determined the effect of exchange rate volatility on Nigeria’s agricultural export performance using annual data from 1980-2015. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH-1,1) model was used to generate the exchange rate volatility series which was subsequently incorporated into the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model for determining factors affecting agricultural exports (cocoa and rubber). The Bounds Test revealed long-run relationship among variables. The results indicated that exchange rate volatility did not significantly affect exports both in the short-run and the long-run. This may be partially attributed to the inelastic nature of agricultural commodities’ supply particularly in the short run. It was also revealed that there was a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate, inflation, GDP, domestic prices, world prices and agricultural export. The study recommended that fiscal and monetary policies such as lower interest rate and import restriction on certain agricultural products should be adopted by the relevant authorities alongside other measures which may improve local production to meet both international and local demands, thereby, improving agricultural export and raising foreign exchange earnings which may translate to sustainable economic growth and lead the country out of recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Akinbode, S. O. & Ojo, O. T., 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Exports in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Approach," Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 8(01), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:naaenj:280316
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.280316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/280316/files/Volume%208%281%29_Akinbode%20and%20Ojo.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.280316?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389.
    3. Blaise Gadanecz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "The exchange rate, real economy and financial markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 11-23, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Chi, Junwook & Cheng, Seu Keow, 2016. "Do exchange rate volatility and income affect Australia’s maritime export flows to Asia?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 13-21.
    5. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
    6. Martin T. Bohl, Pierre Siklos, Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Speculative Activity and Returns to Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures," LCERPA Working Papers 0111, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    7. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    8. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.
    2. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Debopam Rakshit & Ranjit Kumar Paul & Md Yeasin & Walid Emam & Yusra Tashkandy & Christophe Chesneau, 2023. "Modeling Asymmetric Volatility: A News Impact Curve Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    5. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Contagion of future-level sentiment in Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Kritika Mathur & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa, 2014. "Financialisation of food commodity markets, price surge and volatility: new evidence," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 7, pages 149-176, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin‐Yu Ho, 2020. "Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2437-2462, September.
    8. Junshu Jiang & Jordan Richards & Raphael Huser & David Bolin, 2024. "The Efficient Tail Hypothesis: An Extreme Value Perspective on Market Efficiency," Papers 2408.06661, arXiv.org.
    9. Donghua Wang & Yang Xin & Xiaohui Chang & Xingze Su, 2021. "Realized volatility forecasting and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Chinese non‐ferrous metals futures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2713-2731, April.
    10. Gunther Schnabl & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime and Wage Determination in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2471, CESifo.
    11. Mert Demir & Terrence F. Martell & Jun Wang, 2019. "The trilogy of China cotton markets: The lead–lag relationship among spot, forward, and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 522-534, April.
    12. Muhammad Jamil & Erich W. Streissler & Robert M. Kunst, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on Industrial Production, Before and After the Introduction of Common Currency in Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 85-109.
    13. Deepika Krishnan & Vishal Dagar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
    14. Hardik A. Marfatia & Qiang Ji & Jiawen Luo, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of agricultural commodity futures: The role of co‐volatility and oil volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 383-404, March.
    15. Li, Jianping & Li, Guowen & Liu, Mingxi & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2022. "A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-50.
    16. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2023. "Key Macroeconomic Variables under Exchange Rate Volatility: Time-Varying Causality in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(39), pages 49-64, December.
    17. Wimmer, Thomas & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hütter, Marie & Schmid, Florian & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2021. "The impact of speculation on commodity prices: A Meta-Granger analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    18. Huilian Huang & Tao Xiong, 2023. "A good hedge or safe haven? The hedging ability of China's commodity futures market under extreme market conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 968-1035, July.
    19. Musa, Nuhu, 2020. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Inflation in Nigeria," Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, Michael Laurence, vol. 3(1), pages 26-38.
    20. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:naaenj:280316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/naaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.