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Market Reforms, Spatial Price Dynamics, and China's Rice Market Integration: A Causal Analysis with Directed Acyclic Graphs

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  • Awokuse, Titus O.

Abstract

Previous studies on post-reform market performance of Chinese grain markets have produced mixed results. This paper employs province-level price data to determine if China's food market liberalization policies in the 1990s resulted in interregional rice market integration. Furthermore, this study extends the literature on spatial market integration by augmenting multivariate cointegration modeling techniques with directed acyclic models (DAGs), a recently developed statistical method for analyzing contemporaneous causal relationships. While the empirical results confirm the existence of strong market linkages subsequent to the reforms of the early 19902, the linkages became less as the Chinese government reversed several reform policies in the mid-1990s. Overall, the empirical evidence from this study indicates that China's agricultural market policy reforms have been relatively effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Market Reforms, Spatial Price Dynamics, and China's Rice Market Integration: A Causal Analysis with Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8603
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8603
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les, 2012. "The emergence and evolution of regional convergence clusters in China's energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 82-94.
    2. repec:arp:tjssrr:2019:p:876-887 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Xiaojie Xu, 2019. "Contemporaneous Causal Orderings of CSI300 and Futures Prices through Directed Acyclic Graphs," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 2052-2077.
    4. Jerzy Rembeza & Kamila Radlińska, 2020. "Price Linkages Between Tea Markets: A Case Study for Colombo, Kolkata and Mombasa Auctions," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 134-150.
    5. Liu, Bo & Keyzer, Michiel & van den Boom, Bart & Zikhali, Precious, 2012. "How connected are Chinese farmers to retail markets? New evidence of price transmission," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-46.
    6. Antonioli, Federico & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2022. "On Policy Interventions and Vertical Price Transmission: The Italian Milk Supply Chain Case," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
    7. Jeffrey S. Zax & Yin He, 2016. "The Law Of One Price In Chinese Factor Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-31, September.
    8. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Contemporaneous causality among one hundred Chinese cities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2315-2329, October.
    10. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 731-758, March.
    11. Xiaojie Xu, 2015. "Cointegration among regional corn cash prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2581-2594.
    12. Tejeda, Hernan A. & Kim, Man-Keun & Feuz, Dillon M., 2015. "Dynamic Relationships and Price Discovery of Western Alfalfa Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205686, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Yu JIANG & Yu WANG, 2013. "Is China's domestic agricultural market influenced by price fluctuations of the world agricultural commodities in the short-run?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(12), pages 578-589.

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