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What Does the Future Hold for U.S. National Park Visitation? Estimation and Assessment of Demand Determinants and New Projections

Author

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  • Bergstrom, John C.
  • Stowers, Matthew
  • Shonkwiler, J. Scott

Abstract

Using a first-difference econometric model, we estimate an aggregate demand model for assessing the determinants of the quantity of visits to the 47 national parks in the continental United States. The estimated model was then used to project visitation to these parks from the 2016 base year to 2026. Total visitation could see an average increase of about 1.2 million visitors per year through 2026, suggesting that congestion problems already experienced at many parks may get worse. Congestion and overuse strain already limited operation and maintenance budgets and can lead to environmental damage to park sites and reductions in visitor satisfaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergstrom, John C. & Stowers, Matthew & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2020. "What Does the Future Hold for U.S. National Park Visitation? Estimation and Assessment of Demand Determinants and New Projections," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:298433
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.298433
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashley Lowe Mackenzie & Steven J. Dundas & Bo Zhao, 2024. "The Instagram Effect: Is Social Media Influencing Visitation to Public Lands?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 100(2), pages 256-277.
    2. Craig E. Landry & John Bergstrom & John Salazar & Dylan Turner, 2021. "How Has the COVID‐19 Pandemic Affected Outdoor Recreation in the U.S.? A Revealed Preference Approach," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 443-457, March.

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    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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