Modélisation du comportement des exploitants agricoles tenant compte du risque : application du MOTAD généralisé

In 1991, financial internal resources of farms are generally inadequate to cover private deductions , as well as redemption of liabilities and investment. The unfavourable economic conditions made selffinancing income negative for 44 farms out of 100. That proportion is greater for "other viticulture", "beef cattle" and mixed farming" economic orientations. That is the result of a financial analysis made from the accounts of FADN results (in French, RICA : Reseau d'information comptable agricole). Variations in balance sheet between the beginning and end of a budgetary year are particularly well described in the statement of changes in financial position. It requires three important notions in financial analysis : working capital ("fonds de roulement"), increase in working capital ("besoin en fonds de roulement") and net cash ("trésorerie nette"). Through the statement of changes in financial position may be studied differences by type of production as well as performances according to the importance of total investment. In the field of observation of FADN farms three classes may thus be distinguished in 1991 : 312 000 small investors (<50 000F), 7 000 mean investors (50-1000 000F), and 133 200 great investors (>100 000F). The investment is as a whole financed by loans while great investors increase their liability by 100 000F.