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Analysing the economic value of meteorological information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context

Author

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  • Cerdá, Emilio
  • Quiroga, Sonia

Abstract

We evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the decision making process. We present the analytical solution for this problem which is consistent with the numerical results in the literature. However, we prove that there is a range of regions for the optimal policy depending on the cost of crop protection, the avoided loss and the quality of the information available. Finally, we illustrate the results with a numerical example.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerdá, Emilio & Quiroga, Sonia, 2015. "Analysing the economic value of meteorological information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(02).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:earnsa:229590
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.229590
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilio Cerdá Tena & Sonia Quiroga Gómez, 2011. "Economic value of weather forecasting: the role of risk aversion," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 19(1), pages 130-149, July.
    2. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Riesgo, Laura, 2004. "Irrigation water pricing: differential impacts on irrigated farms," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 47-66, July.
    3. Quiroga, Sonia & Cerda, Emilio, 2009. "Optimal crop protection against climate risk in a dynamic cost-loss decision-making model," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51702, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sonia Quiroga & Emilio Cerdá, 2017. "Exploring farmers? selection of crop protection levels as an adaptation strategy to climate risks," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4507414, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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