Food security risk in Ukraine: assessment and forecast

Purpose. The paper’s purpose is to analyze and predict the food security index in Ukraine and to estimate the risk level of its reduction. Methodology / approach. The following models are used for forecasting: the Holt’s two-parameter model – to forecast the dynamics of caloric content of the daily diet and integral food security index; the ARIMA model – for modeling the food economic affordability. The autocorrelation function structure analysis is used to determine the adequacy of the models. The article discusses the procedure of assessing food security risk based on the properties of the econometric forecast error. The annual data of Ukraine were used for assessing the forecasts for the time interval between 1995 and 2018. Results. The paper presents the results of predicting the food security index in the context of macroeconomic instability. The trend (deterministic) and random components for the level of calorie consumption are revealed. The forecast of food availability is presented. The forecast estimates of the Food Security Index of Ukraine for the period up to 2022 are considered. The assessment of price elasticities, household incomes and inflation for basic food products is made. As a result of assessing the level of macroeconomic instability, the structural elements of food security for Ukraine were identified. The article assesses the dynamics of changes in consumption of certain commodity items of foodstuff as components of food security. There is a creation of an alternative methodology for forecasting individual economic indices in the absence of stable trends in the economy of the country based on the use of econometric analysis proposed in the research. It substantiates the use of multi-step methods of forecasting economic indices. It is proved that the integrated forecast of the food security index of Ukraine is in satisfactory state and shows a slight upward trend during the period 2020–2022, but the risks of a decline in the integral index are somewhere beyond satisfactory. Originality / scientific novelty. The results of the individual food security indices forecast, and the integral Food Security Index of Ukraine analysis it is possible to state a satisfactory condition that is unlikely to change in the near future. The alternative forecasting method for individual economic parameters in conditions of the unstable national economy trends is firstly proposed. Practical value / implications. The reported forecast values indicate a decrease in the adequacy of consumption for most foodstuffs. This is most pronounced for the consumption of products of animal origin, which are far from the norm. The non-structural forecasts indicate current trends in the state of food security, which will persist if the impact on the food system by the general state of the country's economy remains unchanged. The main results of the study can be used to estimate the food affordability risks and risks of health deterioration for the population.