IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aieabj/347578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic sanctions and barley price regime change in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Aliabadi, Mohammad Mehdi Farsi
  • Sardehaie, Behzad Fakari

Abstract

In Iran, barley is considered the second-largest cultivated crop. However, more than 40% of Iran’s requirements are imported from the international market. Due to the importance of barley in providing livestock feed and food security, its price variation is a critical issue for Iranian governments. Therefore, in this study, the influence of different determinants of domestic barley price, such as international price, real effective exchange rate variation, price volatility of barley, Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, and the existence of economic sanctions, has been investigated by applying the Markov-Switching model. The main results indicated that in both states, the real effective exchange rate was the primary determinant of the domestic price. Moreover, the impact of international price in first state is much more powerful than the second state. Also, the results revealed that the persistence of US economic sanctions amplified barley prices in both regimes. According to these findings, the government should eliminate interventions in the barley market by utilizing the preferential exchange rate for importing barley. Moreover, pursuing a political agenda to create a stable political condition and lift economic sanctions should be considered the priority for the government to mitigate the barley price upsurge.

Suggested Citation

  • Aliabadi, Mohammad Mehdi Farsi & Sardehaie, Behzad Fakari, 2024. "Economic sanctions and barley price regime change in Iran," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 13(2), July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:347578
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.347578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/347578/files/Economic%20sanctions.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.347578?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uçak, Harun & Yelgen, Esin & Arı, Yakup, 2022. "The Role of Energy on the Price Volatility of Fruits and Vegetables: Evidence from Turkey," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(01), April.
    2. Mittal, S & Hariharan, VK & Subash, SP, 2018. "Price volatility trends and price transmission for major staples in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 31(01).
    3. Layani, Ghasem & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad & Aghabeygi, Mona & Kurstal, Yaprak & Viaggi, Davide, 2020. "The impact of food price shocks on poverty and vulnerability of urban households in Iran," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 9(01), April.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Pieters, Hannah & Swinnen, Johan, 2016. "Trading-off volatility and distortions? Food policy during price spikes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    6. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Behzad FAKARI & Mohammad Mehdi FARSI & Mostafa KOJOURI, 2013. "Determining fluctuations and cycles of corn price in Iran," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(8), pages 373-380.
    8. Braha, K. & Rajčániová, M. & Qineti, A. & Pokrivčák, J. & Lazorčáková, E., 2019. "Evidence of Spatial Price Transmission in the Case of Kosovo," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 11(01), March.
    9. Tirngo Dinku & Gardachew Worku, 2022. "Asymmetric GARCH models on price volatility of agricultural commodities," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-17, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuai Liu & Dingyu Liu & Sibo Ge, 2024. "Impact of external shocks on international corn price fluctuations," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 1-11.
    2. Seiler, Volker, 2024. "The relationship between Chinese and FOB prices of rare earth elements – Evidence in the time and frequency domain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 160-179.
    3. Beran, Jan & Feng, Yuanhua, 1999. "Local Polynomial Estimation with a FARIMA-GARCH Error Process," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & McMullan, Caroline, 2020. "The impact of industrial incidents on stock market volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    7. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Furqan, Mehreen, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility structure of equity returns: Evidence from an emerging market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 330-336.
    8. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    9. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2017. "Disturbances and complexity in volatility time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 38-42.
    10. Hao Chen & Qiulan Wan & Yurong Wang, 2014. "Refined Diebold-Mariano Test Methods for the Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasting Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    12. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    13. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2001. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets," Economics Series 94, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    14. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    15. Gruener Hans Peter & Hayo Bernd & Hefeker Carsten, 2009. "Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, October.
    16. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    17. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    18. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2024. "Testing Granger non-causality in expectiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 30-51, January.
    19. ?ikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Impacts of Stock Indices, Oil, and Twitter Sentiment on Major Cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 First Wave," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 133-146.
    20. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:347578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aieaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.