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Forecasting the competitiveness of Greek olive oil in the international market

Author

Listed:
  • Epistimi Amerani
  • Anastasios Michailidis
  • Stefanos A. Nastis
  • Thomas Bournaris

Abstract

This study evaluates and forecasts the competitiveness of the Greek olive oil sector in the world market, using the indicator of relative trade advantage (RTA) by estimating the Box-Jenkins auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results based on data over the last fifty years indicate that ARIMA (0,1,2) is the best model to forecast the competitiveness of the olive oil sector in the world agricultural market. According to the short-term forecast, the commercial advantage of Greek olive oil will improve up to 2022, validating the design of holistic value creation strategies to produce competitive advantage under variant products and market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Epistimi Amerani & Anastasios Michailidis & Stefanos A. Nastis & Thomas Bournaris, 2018. "Forecasting the competitiveness of Greek olive oil in the international market," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(2), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aergaa:317775
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.317775
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Platania, Marco & Rapisarda, P. & Rizzo, M., 2015. "Italian Trade Specialization: Persistence and Change in Regional Agri-Food Production," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(4), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Ewert P. J. Kleynhans & Herman D. van Schalkwyk & Johannes D. van der Merwe & Philippus. C. Cloete, 2017. "The Competitive Status of the South African Wheat Industry," Working Papers 676, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

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