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Has COVID-19 Caused a Great Trade Collapse? An Initial Ex Post Assessment

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  • Arita, Shawn
  • Grant, Jason
  • Sydow, Sharon

Abstract

We conduct an initial ex-post assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on international trade. Descriptive analysis of observed trade flows suggests that agricultural trade was generally stable under the pandemic relative to non-agricultural trade and previous trade shocks; however, the level of observed changes was highly uneven across commodities and markets. Preliminary econometric analysis finds the pandemic reduced quarterly global agricultural trade by 4.2% in the second and third quarters of 2020. Findings of this study provide initial empirical evidence of the effects of the pandemic on agricultural trade and points to areas of future empirical research.

Suggested Citation

  • Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon, 2021. "Has COVID-19 Caused a Great Trade Collapse? An Initial Ex Post Assessment," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaeach:311038
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.311038
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    Cited by:

    1. Shawn Arita & Jason Grant & Sharon Sydow & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under COVID-19? Lessons from an Econometric Assessment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315888, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Has global agricultural trade been resilient under coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Schmitz, Andrew & Nguyen, Ly, 2022. "Seafood Supply and Demand Disruptions: The Covid-19 Pandemic and Shrimp," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

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