IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v4(625)y2020i4(625)p233-244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the volatility in stock return of emerging economy: An empirical approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aastha KHERA

    (Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, India)

  • Dr. Miklesh Prasad YADAV

    (Amity University, Noida, India)

Abstract

Investors become jittery when they do not earn return on their hard earned money. In the same time, they want to make their investment in safe place rather than losing it. For better return, they also want to estimate the volatility in stock market. The basic purpose of the present study is to forecast the volatility in stock return of emerging economies. For the same, the adjusted daily closing price of eleven countries is considered for five years. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) has been applied to predict the stock return of these countries. The different orders of GARCH have been applied in predicting the volatility. It is found that the volatility of every stock return can be forecasted.

Suggested Citation

  • Aastha KHERA & Dr. Miklesh Prasad YADAV, 2020. "Predicting the volatility in stock return of emerging economy: An empirical approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 233-244, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:4(625):y:2020:i:4(625):p:233-244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1505.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1505&rid=141
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    2. Gamini Premaratne & Lakshmi Bala, 2004. "Stock Market Volatility: Examining North America, Europe and Asia," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 479, Econometric Society.
    3. Dima Alberg & Haim Shalit & Rami Yosef, 2008. "Estimating stock market volatility using asymmetric GARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1201-1208.
    4. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    5. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Emenike, Kalu O., 2010. "Modelling Stock Returns Volatility In Nigeria Using GARCH Models," MPRA Paper 22723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Jaeun Shin, 2005. "Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 31-43, April.
    9. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-294, October-D.
    10. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Modelling and Forecasting Volatility of Returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange Using GARCH Models," MPRA Paper 593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Sinha, Neena & Arya, Vandana, 2024. "Uncovering dynamic connectedness of Artificial intelligence stocks with agri-commodity market in wake of COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine Invasion," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    5. Kumar Arya & Sahoo Jyotirmayee & Sahoo Jyotsnarani & Nanda Subhashree & Debyani Devi, 2024. "Exploring Asymmetric GARCH Models for Predicting Indian Base Metal Price Volatility," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 105-123.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    7. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lakshmi Padmakumari & S Maheswaran, 2016. "A Regression Based Approach to Capturing the Level Dependence in the Volatility of Stock Returns," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 706-718, December.
    9. Milton Abdul Thorlie & Lixin Song & Muhammad Amin & Xiaoguang Wang, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting of stock index volatility with APARCH models under ordered restriction," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 69(3), pages 329-356, August.
    10. Sabur Mollah & Asma Mobarek, 2009. "Market volatility across countries – evidence from international markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 257-274, October.
    11. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    12. Kritika Mathur & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa, 2014. "Financialisation of food commodity markets, price surge and volatility: new evidence," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 7, pages 149-176, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    14. Cathy W. S. Chen & Bonny Lee, 2021. "Bayesian inference of multiple structural change models with asymmetric GARCH errors," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1078, September.
    15. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    16. David M. Frankel, 2008. "Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 595-619, May.
    17. Kalev, Petko S. & Liu, Wai-Man & Pham, Peter K. & Jarnecic, Elvis, 2004. "Public information arrival and volatility of intraday stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1441-1467, June.
    18. Chin-Tsai Lin & Yi-Hsien Wang, 2005. "An Analysis of Political Changes on Nikkei 225 Stock Returns and Volatilities," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 169-183, May.
    19. Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
    20. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    21. Sharif Ullah Jan & Hashim Khan, 2018. "Return Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: A Comparison of US and Pakistani Firms," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:4(625):y:2020:i:4(625):p:233-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mircea Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.