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The Arab Spring was Predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof

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Listed:
  • Simplice A. Asongu
  • Jacinta C. Nwachukwu

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

Suggested Citation

  • Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "The Arab Spring was Predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof," Africagrowth Agenda, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 14(4), pages 4-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:afj:journ2:v:14:y:2017:i:4:p:4-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Ssozi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2016. "The Comparative Economics of Catch-up in Output per Worker, Total Factor Productivity and Technological Gain in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 215-228, June.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 11(1), pages 93-122, June.
    3. Antonio R Andres & Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "Global dynamic timelines for IPRs harmonization against software piracy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 874-880.
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    5. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 439-482, September.
    6. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "Modeling the future of knowledge economy: evidence from SSA and MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 612-624.
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    10. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    11. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 45-60, November.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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