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The Effects of Tourism on the GDP of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in the Process of European Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Slobodan Cerovic

    (Singidunum University, Serbia)

  • Miroslav Kneževic

    (Singidunum University, Serbia)

  • Danijel Pavlovic

    (Singidunum University, Serbia)

Abstract

Tourism is a socio-economic phenomenon exerting considerable economic, social and political impact, thus securing itself an important position in the overall economic growth. The principal purpose of this paper is to present the effects of the EU integration process on tourist movements in Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro during the period 2006-2014, as 2006 was the year when one of the surveyed countries initiated EU accession negotiations, and tourism sector contribution to GDP in these countries in the period from 2002-2013 based on the data available for these years. To that end, the authors have compared the relationship between the number of foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays and the GDP rates in the surveyed countries. Upon reviewing the available sources, the authors have reached the conclusion that during the EU integration period, an increase in the number of foreign tourists and overnight stays positively correlated with the GDP growth. EU integration process has had a positive bearing on tourism movements in the surveyed countries. The panel regression method has shown that despite a continuous increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals, tourism sector still makes a modest direct contribution to the overall economic growth of the surveyed countries (Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia). Also, the Granger causality test was applied to demonstrate that it is not possible to predict GDP values in any of the surveyed countries based on the tourism revenue growth, while tourism contribution to GDP in Macedonia and Montenegro can be predicted based on their GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Slobodan Cerovic & Miroslav Kneževic & Danijel Pavlovic, 2016. "The Effects of Tourism on the GDP of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in the Process of European Integration," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 407-407, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:42:y:2016:i:18:p:407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramesh Durbarry, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 389-401, December.
    2. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth & Ray Spurr, 2003. "Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth: Implications for Destination Managers," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 117-132, June.
    3. Yair Eilat & Liran Einav, 2004. "Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1315-1327.
    4. Alain Dupeyras & Neil MacCallum, 2013. "Indicators for Measuring Competitiveness in Tourism: A Guidance Document," OECD Tourism Papers 2013/2, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; economic growth; GDP; EU integration; panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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