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China's Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

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  • Qiang Ji, Ying Fan, Mike Troilo, Ronald D. Ripple, and Lianyong Feng

Abstract

This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China's natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China's natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China's energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China's growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Ji, Ying Fan, Mike Troilo, Ronald D. Ripple, and Lianyong Feng, 2018. "China's Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-6-ripple
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Malin & Zheng, Huanyu & Shen, Zhiyang & Chen, Boyang, 2023. "How financial technology affects energy transformation in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E., 2019. "Another look at the energy-growth nexus: New insights from MIDAS regressions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 69-84.
    3. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    4. Zhang, Jinrui & Meerman, Hans & Benders, René & Faaij, André, 2022. "Potential role of natural gas infrastructure in China to supply low-carbon gases during 2020–2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    5. Xu, Xiaofeng & Wei, Zhifei & Ji, Qiang & Wang, Chenglong & Gao, Guowei, 2019. "Global renewable energy development: Influencing factors, trend predictions and countermeasures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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