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Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment

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  • Xiaoyi Mu
  • Haichun Ye

Abstract

This paper examines whether, and to what extent, the spot LNG markets in different regions (East Asia, Iberia, Northwest Europe, and South America) are integrated and how market integration evolves over time. We first lay out a framework of market integration in the context of global LNG market where the main supplier (e.g. Qatar) may have market power. Estimating a time-varying coefficients model, we find that a varying degree of market integration exists between all four LNG indices particularly after the Fukushima incident in 2011. We complement the time-varying coefficient analysis with a test of price convergence among the LNG indices using the Phillips-Sul (2007) methodology. The results reveal that, there is strong evidence that the spot LNG prices are converging after the Fukushima accident and they are also converging with the price of NBP in the UK. The empirical result is consistent with the change of market power of the main supplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyi Mu & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-1-mu
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Szafranek Karol & Rubaszek Michał, 2024. "Have European natural gas prices decoupled from crude oil prices? Evidence from TVP-VAR analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 507-530.
    2. Ekaterina Dukhanina & Olivier Massol, 2017. "Spatial Integration of Natural Gas Markets A Litterature Review," Working Papers hal-03187890, HAL.
    3. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2024. "Have the Chinese national oil companies paid too much in overseas asset acquisitions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Dukhanina, Ekaterina & Massol, Olivier & Lévêque, François, 2019. "Policy measures targeting a more integrated gas market: Impact of a merger of two trading zones on prices and arbitrage activity in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 583-593.
    5. Karol Szafranek & Michał Rubaszek, 2024. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation," KAE Working Papers 2024-099, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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