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Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From the UK Continental Shelf

Author

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  • A.G. Kemp
  • A.S. Kasim

Abstract

Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority of fields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates Ð a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.

Suggested Citation

  • A.G. Kemp & A.S. Kasim, 2005. "Are Decline Rates Really Exponential? Evidence From the UK Continental Shelf," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2005v26-01-a02
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    Cited by:

    1. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    2. Charles F. Mason and Gavin Roberts, 2018. "Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    3. Hiorth, Aksel & Osmundsen, Petter, 2020. "Petroleum taxation. The effect on recovery rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Yakubu Abdul-Salam, 2022. "A Real Options Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty and Carbon Taxes on the Optimal Timing of Oil Field Decommissioning," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(6), pages 25-46, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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