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Some New Ethanol Technology: Cost Competition and Adoption Effects in the Petroleum Market

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  • Paul Gallagher
  • Donald Johnson

Abstract

This study examines the adoption prospects and market effects for fuels made from agricultural materials. New ethanol processing methods may eventually enable ethanol production from cellulose materials. A cost analysis suggests that corn residue-based production could be competitive with petroleum based gasoline because land-cost recovery is unnecessary. A supply analysis for U.S. corn residue accounts for potential livestock use and environmental factors. Some simulations are based on a petroleum market model, the residue supply estimate, and adoption of the new ethanol processing technology; results suggest a petroleum price reduction. The benefit-cost analysis for this technology accounts for the oligopoly-offsetting effect of additional supplies and the option valuef or loss reductions in the event of an embargo. Substantial underestimates of the technology benefit will occur unless the chance of embargo and oligopoly pricing are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Gallagher & Donald Johnson, 1999. "Some New Ethanol Technology: Cost Competition and Adoption Effects in the Petroleum Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 89-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1999v20-02-a04
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gallagher, Paul W. & Shapouri, Hosein & Price, Jeffrey & Schamel, Guenter & Brubaker, Heather, 2003. "Some long-run effects of growing markets and renewable fuel standards on additives markets and the US ethanol industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 585-608, September.
    2. Mohamed Abdul Ghani, N. Muhammad Aslaam & Vogiatzis, Chrysafis & Szmerekovsky, Joseph, 2018. "Biomass feedstock supply chain network design with biomass conversion incentives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 39-49.
    3. Gallagher, Paul W. & Dikeman, Mark & Fritz, John & Wailes, Eric & Gauthier, Wayne & Shapouri, Hosein, 2003. "Supply and Social Cost Estimates for Biomass from Crop Residues in the United States," ISU General Staff Papers 200304010800001493, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Uwe Schneider & Bruce McCarl, 2003. "Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(4), pages 291-312, April.
    5. Frederic L. Pryor, 2009. "The Economics Of Gasohol," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 523-537, October.
    6. Junpyo Park & John Anderson & Eric Thompson, 2019. "Land-Use, Crop Choice, and Proximity to Ethanol Plants," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Thorsell, Sara & Epplin, Francis M. & Huhnke, Raymond L., 2003. "Economies Of Size Of A Coordinated Biorefinery Feedstock Harvest System," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35059, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Gallagher, Paul W. & Shapouri, Hosein & Price, Jeffrey & Schamel, Guenter & Brubaker, Heather, 2003. "Some long-run effects of growing markets and renewable fuel standards on additives markets and the US ethanol industry," ISU General Staff Papers 200309010700001445, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Tembo, Gelson & Epplin, Francis M. & Huhnke, Raymond L., 2003. "Integrative Investment Appraisal of a Lignocellulosic Biomass-to-Ethanol Industry," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Gallagher, Paul & Shapouri, Hosein & Brubaker, Heather, 2007. "Scale, Organization, and Profitability of Ethanol Processing," ISU General Staff Papers 200703010800001439, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Paul W. Gallagher, 2009. "Roles for evolving markets, policies, and technology improvements in U.S. corn ethanol industry development," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 12-33.
    12. Paul Gallagher & Mark Dikeman & John Fritz & Eric Wailes & Wayne Gauthier & Hosein Shapouri, 2003. "Supply and Social Cost Estimates for Biomass from Crop Residues in the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(4), pages 335-358, April.
    13. Gallagher, Paul W. & Shapouri, Hosein, 2008. "Biomass Crop and Ethanol Supply from Agricultural Lands in the United States with Methodology, Estimation Results, and State-by-State Simulations," Agricultural Economic Reports 308485, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Szulczyk, Kenneth R. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Cornforth, Gerald, 2010. "Market penetration of ethanol," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 394-403, January.
    15. Gallagher, Paul W., 2009. "Roles for Evolving Markets, Policies, and Technology Improvements in U.S. Corn Ethanol Industry Development," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001495, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Rendleman, C. Matthew & Shapouri, Hosein, 2007. "New Technologies in Ethanol Production," Agricultural Economic Reports 308483, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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