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The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s

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  • Dermot Gately
  • Peter Rappoport

Abstract

Since the 1979-80 oil price doubling, U.S. oil consumption has declined by about 20 percent, in part because of price-induced conservation. This has caused self-congratulatory euphoria, especially in the first few months of 1986, when both the oil price and OPEC were collapsing. We argue here that the euphoria could well be short-lived. U.S. oil consumption will resume its growth and, within five to ten years, could be higher than ever. Combining these results with the consensus projection of declining domestic production, the outlook for rapidly growing dependence on imported oil is disturbing. Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.

Suggested Citation

  • Dermot Gately & Peter Rappoport, 1988. "The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 93-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1988v09-02-a07
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    Cited by:

    1. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    2. S. P. A. Brown & Keith R. Phillips, 1991. "U.S. Oil Demand And Conservation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(1), pages 67-72, January.
    3. Margaret A. Walls, 1990. "Welfare Cost Of An Oil Import Fee," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 8(2), pages 176-189, April.
    4. Orasch, Wolfgang & Wirl, Franz, 1997. "Technological efficiency and the demand for energy (road transport)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1129-1136, December.
    5. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    6. I.O. Walker & Franz Wirl, 1993. "Irreversible Price-Induced Efficiency Improvements: Theory and Empirical Application to Road Transportation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, October.
    7. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
    8. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2009. "An empirical analysis of petroleum demand for Indonesia: An application of the cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4391-4396, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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