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COVID-19 and Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
  • Veronika Penciakova
  • Nick Sander

Abstract

This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 "time bomb" in small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020 do not on their own create a 2021 time bomb for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would arise not from excessively generous 2020 policies but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "COVID-19 and Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 282-286, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:282-86
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211109
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guerini, Mattia & Nesta, Lionel & Ragot, Xavier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2024. "Zombification of the economy? Assessing the effectiveness of French government support during COVID-19 lockdown," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 263-280.
    2. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    3. Coad, Alexander & Amaral-Garcia, Sofia & Bauer, Peter & Domnick, Clemens & Harasztosi, Péter & Pál, Rozália & Teruel, Mercedes, 2022. "Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms: A difference-in-difference approach," EIB Working Papers 2022/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    4. Kame Babilla, Thierry U., 2023. "Digital innovation and financial access for small and medium-sized enterprises in a currency union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Galindo, Arturo & Tovar, Jorge, 2022. "Policy Support and Firm Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12591, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Thibaut Duprey & Daniel E. Rigobon & Philip Schnattinger & Artur Kotlicki & Soheil Baharian & T. R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places," Staff Working Papers 22-1, Bank of Canada.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alex Coad & Sofia Amaral-Garcia & Peter Bauer & Clemens Domnick & Peter Harasztosi & Rozália Pál & Mercedes Teruel, 2023. "Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms in times of COVID," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 193-220, March.
    10. Bonfim, Diana & Custódio, Cláudia & Raposo, Clara, 2023. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 658-688.
    11. Zhou, Ye & Huang, Difang & Chen, Muzi & Wang, Yunlong & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2024. "How did small business respond to unexpected shocks? Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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