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The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does It Spread around the World?

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  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky
  • Leandro Medina
  • Shiyi Wang

Abstract

With a novel database, we examine the evolution of capital flows since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s. We decompose capital flows into global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors. In contrast to previous findings, which mostly use data from the 2000s, we find that booms and busts in capital flows are mainly explained by regional factors and not the global factor. We link leverage in the financial center to regional capital flows and the cost of borrowing in international capital markets to examine the drivers of capital flow bonanzas and busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Leandro Medina & Shiyi Wang, 2020. "The Financial Center Leverage Cycle: Does It Spread around the World?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 504-510, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:504-10
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Megginson, William L, 1990. "Determinants of Secondary Market Prices for Developing Country Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1517-1540, December.
    2. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom - Bust Capital Flow Cycles," Working Papers 2019-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2019. "Boom-Bust Capital Flow Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shambaugh, Jay C. & Zhou, Hang, 2024. "Interest rates across the world: Global, regional, and idiosyncratic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Natacha Postel‐Vinay & Stéphanie Collet, 2024. "Hot money inflows and bank risk‐taking: Germany from the 1920s to the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(2), pages 472-502, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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