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The Cost-Effectiveness Implications of Carbon Price Certainty

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  • Joseph E. Aldy
  • Sarah Armitage

Abstract

While a firm knows the carbon price with certainty under a tax, it must form an expectation about future allowance prices to identify its cost-effective abatement investment under a cap-and-trade program. We illustrate graphically how errors in forming this expectation increase the costs of irreversible pollution abatement investment under cap-and-trade relative to a tax. We describe empirical "cost-effectiveness anomalies" in allowance markets that may be attributed to cap-and-trade's inherent uncertainty. We model investment under simulated US carbon tax and cap-and-trade policies and find that allowance price uncertainty can increase resource costs 20 percent for a given quantity of emission abatement.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Aldy & Sarah Armitage, 2020. "The Cost-Effectiveness Implications of Carbon Price Certainty," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 113-118, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:113-18
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201083
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    2. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    3. Jean-Marc Bourgeon, 2024. "Optimal Green Technology Adoption and Policy Implementation," Working Papers hal-02799535, HAL.
    4. Vahid Mohamad Taghvaee & Abbas Assari Arani & Susanne Soretz & Lotfali Agheli, 2023. "Diesel demand elasticities and sustainable development pillars of economy, environment and social (health): comparing two strategies of subsidy removal and energy efficiency," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2285-2315, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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