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Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy

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  • Tiziano Ropele
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Olivier Coibion

Abstract

Using Italian data that include both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss of the dispersed expectation-induced misallocation is moderate, but we argue that it likely becomes quite significant in times of high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziano Ropele & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2024. "Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 246-261, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:6:y:2024:i:2:p:246-61
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230201
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    3. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Debora Revoltella & Jan Svejnar & Christoph T. Weiss, 2018. "Resource Misallocation in European Firms: The Role of Constraints, Firm Characteristics and Managerial Decisions," NBER Working Papers 24444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2021. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-86.
    7. Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2020. "Price dispersion and inflation: New facts and theoretical implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 59-70.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    2. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Masuda, Kazuto, 2024. "The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress," SocArXiv nxshd, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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