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A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author

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  • Guido Lorenzoni
  • Iván Werning

Abstract

This note isolates an overlooked economic force for the ruble to appreciate in response to international sanctions limiting exports to Russia. The intuition is that when Russians are unable to buy the mix of foreign goods they wish, foreign goods become less attractive, increasing demand for domestic goods. To reestablish an equilibrium, a real appreciation is needed to raise the relative price of domestic goods and incentivize imports from nonsanctioning countries. We also review well-known forces for depreciation. Our analysis emphasizes that the exchange rate is an inadequate signal of the welfare impact and of the effectiveness of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2023. "A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 347-356, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:5:y:2023:i:3:p:347-56
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220303
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo de Souza & Naiyuan Hu & Haishi Li & Yuan Mei, 2022. "(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions," Working Paper Series WP 2022-49, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Stanislav Yugay & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2024. "Impact of the Ruble exchange rate regime and Russia's war in Ukraine on wheat prices in Russia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 384-411, March.
    3. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2022. "Sanctions and the Exchange Rate," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 148-151, May.
    4. Hayakawa,Kazunobu & Kumagai,Satoru, 2022. "The trade effect of economic sanctions: evidence from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict," IDE Discussion Papers 857, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    5. Bianchi, Javier & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2024. "On wars, sanctions, and sovereign default," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 62-70.
    6. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2023. "International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance," Working Papers 227, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    7. Berthou Antoine, 2023. "International sanctions and the dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing," Working papers 924, Banque de France.
    8. Gustavo de Souza & Naiyuan Hu & Haishi Li & Yuan Mei, 2023. "(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10477, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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