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Bunching to Maximize Tax Credits: Evidence from Kinks in the US Tax Schedule

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  • Jacob A. Mortenson
  • Andrew Whitten

Abstract

We explore bunching at US income tax kinks using a panel of 258 million tax returns from 1996 to 2014. We find bunching at seven kinks, with nearly all bunching occurring at kinks maximizing tax credits. In our sample period, the total number of bunchers increased at an 11 percent annualized growth rate, from 134,300 in 1996 to 866,600 in 2014. Approximately two-thirds of these bunchers locate at the unique point that maximizes refunds. Some taxpayers repeatedly bunch at this point, even in consecutive years when different tax kinks are refund maximizing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob A. Mortenson & Andrew Whitten, 2020. "Bunching to Maximize Tax Credits: Evidence from Kinks in the US Tax Schedule," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 402-432, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:402-32
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180054
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "The Ability Gradient in Bunching," CESifo Working Paper Series 8233, CESifo.
    2. Bergolo, Marcelo & Burdin, Gabriel & De Rosa, Mauricio & Giaccobasso, Matias & Leites, Martin, 2019. "Tax Bunching at the Kink in the Presence of Low Capacity of Enforcement: Evidence from Uruguay," IZA Discussion Papers 12286, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. John Guyton & Kara Leibel & Day Manoli & Ankur Patel & Mark Payne & Brenda Schafer, 2023. "The Effects of EITC Correspondence Audits on Low-Income Earners," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 38, pages 163-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stuart Adam & James Browne & David Phillips & Barra Roantree, 2021. "Frictions and taxpayer responses: evidence from bunching at personal tax thresholds," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 612-653, June.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France," NBER Working Papers 24049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Bíró, Anikó & Prinz, Dániel & Sándor, László, 2022. "The minimum wage, informal pay, and tax enforcement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    8. Aronsson, Thomas & Jenderny, Katharina & Lanot, Gauthier, 2022. "The quality of the estimators of the ETI," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Hargaden, Enda Patrick, 2020. "Taxpayer responses in good times and bad," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 653-690.
    10. Marx Benjamin M., 2024. "Dynamic Bunching Estimation with Panel Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 225-249.
    11. Saulitis, Andris & Chapkovski, Philipp, 2023. "Investigating Tax Compliance with Mixed-Methods Approach: The Effect of Normative Appeals Among the Firms in Latvia," MPRA Paper 116560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. José Torres Remírez* & Eduardo Gómez Melero & Eva López González, 2024. "Bunching en España (1982-1998). Las rentas bajas frente a las modificaciones del tipo marginal," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 250(3), pages 33-67, September.
    13. Joerg Paetzold, 2019. "How do taxpayers respond to a large kink? Evidence on earnings and deduction behavior from Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 167-197, February.
    14. Goldring, Thomas & Jacob, Brian A. & Kreisman, Daniel & Ricks, Michael D., 2024. "Loopholes and the Incidence of Public Services: Evidence from Funding Career & Technical Education," IZA Discussion Papers 16943, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Anikó Bíró & Péter Elek & Dániel Prinz & László Sándor, 2024. "Tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link: the case of maternity benefits," IFS Working Papers W24/57, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Jakob Brounstein, 2021. "The tax-price elasticity of offshore tax avoidance: Evidence from Ecuadorian transaction data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-187, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Becka Brolinson, 2019. "Does Increasing Block Pricing Decrease Energy Use? Evidence from the Residential Electricity Market," Working Papers gueconwpa~19-19-06, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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