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A Quantitative Theory of Information, Worker Flows, and Wage Dispersion

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  • Amanda M. Michaud

Abstract

Employer learning provides a link between wage and employment dynamics. Workers who are selectively terminated when their low productivity is revealed subsequently earn lower wages. If learning is asymmetric across employers, randomly separated high-productivity workers are treated similarly when hired from unemployment, but recover as their next employer learns their type. I provide empirical evidence supporting this link, then study whether employer learning is an empirically important factor in wage and employment dynamics. In a calibrated structural model, learning accounts for 78 percent of wage losses after unemployment, 24 percent of life-cycle wage growth, and 13 percent of cross-sectional dispersion observed in data.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda M. Michaud, 2018. "A Quantitative Theory of Information, Worker Flows, and Wage Dispersion," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 154-183, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:154-83
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160136
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bulent Guler & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Online Appendix: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. David Wiczer & Amanda Michaud, 2017. "The Disability Option: Labor Market Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Health Risks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1459, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Wealth After Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Samaniego de la Parra Brenda & Fernández Bujanda León, 2020. "Increasing the Cost of Informal Workers: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2020-19, Banco de México.
    5. Eric M. Leeper, 2015. "Fiscal Analysis is Darned Hard," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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