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Dynamic Implications of Subjective Expectations: Evidence from Adult Smokers

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  • Yang Wang

Abstract

We set up a dynamic discrete choice model with subjective expectations data to explain adult smokers' find important differences between subjective survival probabilities and those estimated using observed mortality data. Subjectively, individuals attach less weight to their health conditions and smoking choices and more weight to such factors as age, race, and parents' longevity. Moreover, adult smokers are found to care more about their health and to be more forward-looking than predicted by a rational expectations framework. We further show the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in agents' subjective survival probabilities, and discuss policy implications of subjective expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Wang, 2014. "Dynamic Implications of Subjective Expectations: Evidence from Adult Smokers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:1-37
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.6.1.1
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    Cited by:

    1. An, Yonghong & Hu, Yingyao & Xiao, Ruli, 2021. "Dynamic decisions under subjective expectations: A structural analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 645-675.
    2. Hansen, Jörgen & Davalloo, Golnaz, 2023. "Persistent Marijuana Use: Evidence from the NLSY," IZA Discussion Papers 16446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    4. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Komarova, Tatiana & Sanches, Fábio Adriano & Silva Junior, Daniel & Srisuma, Sorawoot, 2018. "Joint analysis of the discount factor and payoff parameters in dynamic discrete choice games," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86858, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022. "I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
    8. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    9. Joachim Marti & Michael R. Richards, 2017. "Smoking Response to Health and Medical Spending Changes and the Role of Insurance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 305-320, March.
    10. Yiqun Chen & Frank Sloan, 2014. "Subjective Beliefs, Deterrence, and the Propensity to Drive While Intoxicated," NBER Working Papers 20680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen & Joffre Swait & Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, 2020. "Social Cooperation in the Context of Integrated Private and Common Land Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(1), pages 105-136, January.
    12. Huynh, Kim P. & Jung, Juergen, 2015. "Subjective health expectations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 693-711.
    13. Daniel Barth, 2018. "The Costs and Beliefs Implied by Direct Stock Ownership," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5263-5288, November.
    14. Higgins, Ayden & Jochmans, Koen, 2023. "Identification of mixtures of dynamic discrete choices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    15. Sunde, Uwe, 2023. "Age, longevity, and preferences," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    16. Donna B. Gilleskie, 2021. "In sickness and in health, until death do us part: A case for theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 753-768, January.
    17. Hurwitz, Abigail & Sade, Orly, 2020. "An investigation of time preferences, life expectancy, and annuity versus lump sum choices: Can smoking harm long-term saving decisions?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 812-825.
    18. Gregorio Gimenez & Ana Isabel Gil-Lacruz & Marta Gil-Lacruz, 2021. "Is Happiness Linked to Subjective Life Expectancy? A Study of Chilean Senior Citizens," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-12, August.
    19. Lin, Wanchuan & Sloan, Frank, 2015. "Risk perceptions and smoking decisions of adult Chinese men," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 60-73.
    20. Shenoy, Ajay, 2015. "Does Schooling Give Us Rational Expectations?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7jc118kk, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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