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Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location

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  • Nils Braakmann
  • Arnaud Chevalier
  • Tanya Wilson

Abstract

We provide first evidence that variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that South Asian households store gold jewelry at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households. Using a neighborhood-level panel on crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighborhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighborhoods in the same municipality. We conduct various tests on neighborhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Braakmann & Arnaud Chevalier & Tanya Wilson, 2024. "Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 144-160, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:144-60
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20220585
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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