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Demagogues and the Economic Fragility of Democracies

Author

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  • Dan Bernhardt
  • Stefan Krasa
  • Mehdi Shadmehr

Abstract

We investigate the susceptibility of democracies to demagogues, studying tensions between representatives who guard voters' long-run interests and demagogues who cater to voters' short-run desires. Parties propose consumption and investment. Voters base choices on current-period consumption and valence shocks. Younger/poorer economies and economically disadvantaged voters are attracted to the demagogue's disinvestment policies, forcing farsighted representatives to mimic them. This electoral competition can destroy democracy: if capital falls below a critical level, a death spiral ensues with capital stocks falling thereafter. We identify when economic development mitigates this risk and characterize how the death-spiral risk declines as capital grows large.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Bernhardt & Stefan Krasa & Mehdi Shadmehr, 2022. "Demagogues and the Economic Fragility of Democracies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(10), pages 3331-3366, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:10:p:3331-66
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211125
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    Cited by:

    1. Delgado-Vega, Álvaro, 2024. "Persistence in power of long-lived parties," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Alan de Bromhead & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "Should history change the way we think about populism?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(3), pages 1086-1109, August.
    3. Emmanuelle Auriol & Nicolas Bonneton & Mattias Polborn, 2023. "Shaking Up the System: When Populism Disciplines Elite Politicians," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_473, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Hyungmin Park, 2024. "Theory of developmental dictatorship," Discussion Papers 2024-10, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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