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Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices

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  • Paul Heidhues
  • Philipp Strack

Abstract

A (partially naive) quasi-hyperbolic discounter repeatedly chooses whether to complete a task. Her net benefits of task completion are drawn independently between periods from a time-invariant distribution. We show that the probability of completing the task conditional on not having done so earlier increases towards the deadline. Conversely, we establish nonidentifiability by proving that for any time-preference parameters and any dataset with such (weakly increasing) task-completion probabilities, there exists a stationary payoff distribution that rationalizes the agent's behavior if she is either sophisticated or fully naive. Additionally, we provide sharp partial identification for the case of observable continuation values.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Heidhues & Philipp Strack, 2021. "Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2594-2622, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:8:p:2594-2622
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191258
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    3. Cetemen, Doruk & Feng, Felix Zhiyu & Urgun, Can, 2023. "Renegotiation and dynamic inconsistency: Contracting with non-exponential discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Charlotte Cordes & Jana Friedrichsen & Simeon Schudy, 2023. "Motivated Procrastination," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 471, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    5. Dmitriy Sergeyev & Chen Lian & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2023. "The Economics of Financial Stress," NBER Working Papers 31285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2022. "Voluntary minimum repayments and borrower heterogeneity: Evidence from revolving consumer credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Bisin, Alberto & Hyndman, Kyle, 2020. "Present-bias, procrastination and deadlines in a field experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 339-357.
    8. Kyle Hyndman & Alberto Bisin, 2022. "Procrastination, self-imposed deadlines and other commitment devices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(3), pages 871-897, October.
    9. Gillitzer, Christian & Sinning, Mathias, 2020. "Nudging businesses to pay their taxes: Does timing matter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 284-300.
    10. Schiraldi, Pasquale & Levy, Matthew R., 2020. "Identification of intertemporal preferences in history-dependent dynamic discrete choice models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Han Bleichrodt & Rogier J. D. Potter van Loon & Drazen Prelec, 2022. "Beta-Delta or Delta-Tau? A Reformulation of Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6326-6335, August.
    12. Ryo Nakajima & Michitaka Sasaki & Ryuichi Tamura, 2020. "Examining Patent Examiners: Present Bias, Procrastination and Task Performance," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-015, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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