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A Model of Trading in the Art Market

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  • Stefano Lovo
  • Christophe Spaenjers

Abstract

We present an infinite-horizon model of endogenous trading in the art auction market. Agents make purchase and sale decisions based on the relative magnitude of their private use value in each period. Our model generates endogenous cross-sectional and time-series patterns in investment outcomes. Average returns and buy-in probabilities are negatively correlated with the time between purchase and resale (attempt). Idiosyncratic risk does not converge to zero as the holding period shrinks. Prices and auction volume increase during expansions. Our model finds empirical support in auction data and has implications for selection biases in observed prices and transaction-based price indexes.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Lovo & Christophe Spaenjers, 2018. "A Model of Trading in the Art Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 744-774, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:3:p:744-74
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160522
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    Cited by:

    1. David, Géraldine & Li, Yuexin & Oosterlinck, Kim & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "Art in Times of Crisis," Other publications TiSEM 34925083-7378-4691-ba63-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan & Vecco, Marilena, 2021. "Reading between the lines in the art market: Lack of transparency and price heterogeneity as an indicator of multiple equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog & José A Scheinkman & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "When a Master Dies: Speculation and Asset Float [Optimal financial crises]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3840-3879.
    4. Sarah J. Skinner & John D. Jackson, 2019. "American art as an investment: new evidence from an alternative approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 367-381, April.
    5. Etro, Federico & Marchesi, Silvia & Stepanova, Elena, 2020. "Liberalizing art. Evidence on the Impressionists at the end of the Paris Salon," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
    7. Yuexin Li & Xiaoyin Ma & Luc Renneboog, 2024. "In Art We Trust," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 98-127, January.
    8. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    9. Etro, Federico & Stepanova, Elena, 2021. "Art return rates from old master paintings to contemporary art," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 94-116.
    10. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    11. Dragana Cvijanović & Christophe Spaenjers, 2021. "“We’ll Always Have Paris”: Out-of-Country Buyers in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4120-4138, July.
    12. Ma, Marshall Xiaoyin & Noussair, Charles N. & Renneboog, Luc, 2022. "Colors, Emotions, and the Auction Value of Paintings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Kräussl, Roman & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2023. "The pricing of digital art," CFS Working Paper Series 716, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Ghazi, Soroush & Schneider, Mark, 2024. "Market value of rarity: A theory of fair value and evidence from rare baseball cards," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 318-339.
    15. Antonia Díaz & Belén Jerez & Juan Pablo Rincón-Zapatero, 2024. "Housing Prices and Credit Constraints in Competitive Search," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 220-270.
    16. Whitaker, Amy & Kräussl, Roman, 2023. "Art collectors as venture capitalists," CFS Working Paper Series 696, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Ma, X., 2019. "Essays on alternative investments," Other publications TiSEM 7f4d5b36-96cb-4eac-ae91-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Brett Hemenway Falk & Gerry Tsoukalas & Niuniu Zhang, 2022. "Economics of NFTs: The Value of Creator Royalties," Papers 2212.00292, arXiv.org.
    19. Aubry, Mathieu & Kräussl, Roman & Manso, Gustavo & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2019. "Machine learning, human experts, and the valuation of real assets," CFS Working Paper Series 635, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Bernales, Alejandro & Reus, Lorenzo & Valdenegro, Víctor, 2022. "Speculative bubbles under supply constraints, background risk and investment fraud in the art market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Corey J.M. Williams & Kole Reddig & Adam Nowak, "undated". "Collectible Pricing and Collector Utility: The Role of Production Commitments," Working Papers 24-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    22. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Emmanuel Kwesi Arthur & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty shocks on art market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(29), pages 3404-3421, June.
    23. Milad Nozari, 2022. "Investment horizon for private‐value assets: Evidence from the art market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 229-246, June.
    24. Li, Yuexin, 2021. "Pricing art: Returns, trust, and crises," Other publications TiSEM 8832c172-83dd-4ed9-8215-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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